QQQ - SPY: S&P 500 Fundamentals Point To A Bear Market

• S&P 500 earnings are going against increasingly tough comps. This time last year, $1.9 trillion in stimulus was sloshing its way through the U.S. economy.
• One would think that 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates would reflect the fact that spending was temporary and driven by fiscal stimulus rather than permanent. Unfortunately, this is not so.
• In reality, earnings are likely to be lower this year than last year, not higher. The market has not fully adjusted to this fact, and the Fed won't be helping either.
• The market is figuring this out better than sell-side analysts are, which is why stocks are down roughly 11% for the year as of my writing this.
• Stocks are in a lot of trouble – there's likely 10%-20% downside from here based on the degree earnings estimates are still disconnected from reality and how much the Fed ends up tightening. Regardless, I have some strategies to help you profit.

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