TMF - Stay Of Execution: Will The Fed's Rate Pause Breathe More Life Into The U.S. Expansion?
As we head deeper into the year, the U.S. economy continues to grind slowly forward despite trade concerns and Brexit worries. Markets have rebounded from their Christmas Eve lows, and the Fed has signaled that rate hikes are on hold for several months. Does this mean the all-clear has been sounded?
No. Our view is that the U.S. remains late in the economic cycle - and that the economy is still likely to roll over into a recession in 2020. While perhaps a little later than originally anticipated, the risk of an economic slump by