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By the end of this week, the Federal Reserve will most likely have cut their key primary rate for the first time in almost twelve years. This article looks at what has happened to stock returns in the year after the Fed began easing policy. Below I have tabled the date of the first Fed cuts in the last four easing cycles, beginning in 2007, 2001, 1998, and 1995 respectively.
Here are my key takeaways for investors:
Mid-cycle versus late cycle matters. The cuts in 2001 and 2007 occurred when the U.S. economy was already