SMLL - Superforecasters Predict Vaccine Next Year Key To The Economic Forecast
Economic forecasters face a great challenge in the Covid-19 pandemic. The economic outlook critically depends on development of a vaccine. Instead of studying mathematical modeling, statistics and economics, perhaps we should have delved into virology, epidemiology and immunization. But there's hope coming from superforecasters. The book Superforecasting told the story of Philip Tetlock's research project that identified some people as excellent forecasters, even outside their areas of expertise. And now the superforecasters are predicting a Covid-19 vaccine.
The superforecaster panels - more about them below - are pretty equally divided between those who expect a