SWMAY - Swedish Match: Potential To Double After ZYN Widened Its U.S. Lead In Q4
- Swedish Match released strong Q4 results on Tuesday, giving 2021 double-digit EBIT growth in all of its businesses (excluding FX).
- In U.S. nicotine pouches, Swedish Match increased its volume share by 60 bps from Q3 to 64.4%, with strong revenue and EBIT growth.
- The Scandinavia Smokefree business continued steady growth, while U.S. Cigars had a temporary reverse in Q4 due to global supply chain issues.
- Return of capital is being stepped up, with the dividend raised 24% (to a 2.6% yield), and record buybacks in Q4; we expect more to follow.
- With shares at SEK 72.02, we expect an exit price of SEK 139 and a total return of 108% (21.9% annualized) by 2025 year-end.
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Swedish Match: Potential To Double After ZYN Widened Its U.S. Lead In Q4