TSLA - Tesla: Betting On The Future With A Weak Present Is Risky
2024-06-20 09:21:03 ET
Summary
- Tesla's continued price cuts despite flat interest rates indicate microeconomic demand issues rather than macroeconomic customer affordability needs.
- Competitive threats in the EV OEM market are mounting and Tesla is losing market share in all major geographies.
- Tesla's energy business is a small silver lining that is expected to grow handsomely and have margin expansion. But it is not enough to offset the weakness in automotive sales.
- Tesla's 84.5x 1-yr fwd PE is at precarious levels. Investors are banking a lot on immaterialized growth multipliers of FSD and Optimus, which I view as too risky.
- I'm holding off on a 'Sell' view as the technicals vs the S&P500 show limited runway for bearish moves as prices trade closer to the support of a monthly range.
Performance Assessment
I had a 'Sell' rating in my last coverage of Tesla ( TSLA ), which played out well:
Performance since Author's Last Update on Tesla (Author's Last Article on Tesla, Seeking Alpha)