FTDS - The 1-Minute Market Report December 4 2023

2023-12-04 04:30:00 ET

Summary

• After five consecutive up weeks, we are now just 4.2% below the record-high water mark, set back in January 2022.
• The best performer last week was Blockchain, as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued to rally.
• Palladium prices fell last week as the dollar gained ground.

Originally posted on December 2, 2023

In this weekly market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower. Identifying the winners and losers allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.

The S&P 500 winning streak continues

For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.8%. After five consecutive up weeks, we are now just 4.2% below the record-high water mark, set back in January 2022. We could get there by the end of this year.

A look at monthly returns

This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. November was strong enough to erase all of the losses from August, September, and October.

The market made a new high for 2023

This chart highlights the 28.4% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We made considerable progress last week and moved further above the long-term trend line. The correction is officially over.

The Golden Cross

The market entered a Golden Cross configuration (a Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day) on February 2, 2023.

The spread between these two moving averages has started to widen once again. Today it stands at 1.7%, below the long-term average of 2.3%.

Major asset class performance

Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the year-to-date returns as well as the returns since the October 12, 2022, low for additional context.

The best performer last week was Blockchain, as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued to rally. The small-cap Russell 2000 also had a strong week, as investors sought bargains among the asset classes that have lagged this year.

The worst-performing asset class last week was Managed Futures. These hedging vehicles tend to be short the market.

Equity sector performance

For this report, I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.

Real Estate and Retailers had a very good week, as mortgage rates cooled sharply from their recent run-up and consumer spending remains healthy.

Communication Services stocks lagged behind, giving back some of their recent gains.

Equity group performance

For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.

The best-performing groups last week were small and mid-cap stocks. Market participation is expanding, which is a healthy sign for the market. The top 7 mega-cap stocks lost ground as investors rotated into small and mid-cap names.

The S&P Top 7

Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market all year. These seven stocks account for 71% of the total YTD gain in the S&P 500. That's down from 87% just six weeks ago, providing evidence that participation in the bull market is broadening once again.

The 10 best-performing ETFs from last week

The Blockchain ETF took the top spot on the ETF leaderboard, edging out the ARK Fintech ETF. Gold miners also had a good week.

The 10 worst-performing ETFs from last week

Palladium prices fell last week as the dollar gained ground. A Reuters survey showed that analysts expect palladium prices to decline in 2024 as automotive production slows down.

The 10 best-performing stocks from last week

Here are the 10 best-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week.

The 10 worst-performing stocks from last week

Here are the 10 worst-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week.

Final thoughts

The S&P Top 7 stocks continue to dominate the market, but that dominance is slipping lately. As the following chart shows, these seven mega-cap tech stocks still account for 71% of the S&P 500 YTD gain.

After several weeks of narrowing market participation, it now looks like leadership is beginning to broaden again. This can be seen in the performance of small and mid-cap stocks, which have recently been outperforming large caps.

The fact that the market as a whole went up last week without any help from the Top 7 is an encouraging sign. As market participation broadens, the durability of this bull run is enhanced.

Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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