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The threat of declining earnings because of reduced economic activity caused by the spread of the coronavirus, Covid-19, has finally overtaken the unbridled optimism that's been fueled by seasonal tailwinds, a resolution of impeachment worries, and decreasing trade tensions.
As a result, our overbought/oversold indicator has shifted dramatically in the past three weeks to levels suggesting risk/reward favors buying down days in the strongest sectors and industries. Specifically, only 20.9% of stocks in our 1,600-stock universe are trading 5% or more above their 200 DMA, down from a peak above 50% on January 23rd.