SMLL - The Big 4: August Retail Sales See Nominal All-Time High

By Jill Mislinski

Note: With the release of August Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:

• Nonfarm Employment

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