PBJ - The Big 4 Economic Indicators: November Real Retail Sales
By Jill Mislinski
Note: With the release of November Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which it bases its decisions. This committee statement is about as close as it gets to identifying its method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in its cycle identification process. They are:
- Nonfarm Employment
- Industrial