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Note: With the release of September Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which it bases its decisions. This committee statement is about as close as the committee gets to identifying its method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in its cycle identification process. They are: