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Investing across the cycle requires a firm grasp of the fundamentals, and perhaps nothing is more fundamental than the flow of money and credit.
Indeed, the current economic shock facing the world can be boiled down to a simple one-liner: we are currently in the middle of a liquidity crisis, and the biggest downside risk is that it transitions from a liquidity crisis to a solvency crisis.
As the charts and analysis below show, disruptions in the flow of money and credit can trigger and signal a self-reinforcing downdraft to markets. That said, I remain