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FLGV - The Camel's Nose Is In The Tent 2022 Edition
Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond
Any inversion of a portion of the yield curve - as has just happened - is a negative long leading indicator, specifically for the period 12 to 24 months out.
But the depth, duration, and breadth of the inversion are all important in assessing the weight to give the indicator. A one-day inversion by no means a recession is inevitable.
In particular, the Fed has agency, and can react to the indicator and alter course, thereby changing the path of the future.