ILCB - The Case Against Lone Recession Indicators Is Stronger Than Ever
2024-07-24 09:55:00 ET
Summary
- Among the indicators that have failed to provide timely signals of an approaching recession: the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index, and temporary help employment, which Axios notes “was big tell” in the past but has stumbled recently.
- There are techniques to minimize the noise, maximize the signal and boost the timeliness and reliability of recession analytics.
- Using a multi-factor set of proprietary business cycle indicators to forecast the near-term outlook suggests that economic activity is stabilizing through August, albeit at a slow/sluggish pace.
It’s a human shortcoming to favor simple explanations for the business cycle. The notion that reliability and timeliness can be forged in one indicator endures, but recent history has hammered this approach, reminds a new commentary from Axios....
The Case Against Lone Recession Indicators Is Stronger Than Ever