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In our gold price framework, we identified three main drivers for gold prices: central bank policy (through real-interest rate expectations and QE), changes in central bank inventories and longer dated energy prices.
Longer term energy prices were the main contributor to the sharp gold rally between 2003 and 2008.
While the COVID-19 pandemic so far has had a very limited impact on long-dated oil prices, in our view, it will have a substantial impact on future supply growth.