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SCHR - The Coronavirus Is Neither Inflationary Nor Deflationary
Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury
There has been a growing debate regarding whether COVID-19 (and its lasting economic consequences) will promote inflation or deflation. Traditionally, recessions are deflationary, as they cause demand to decline while supply is unchanged. However, this recession is far from traditional in that both supply and demand are in decline, resulting in an unclear price impact.
Indeed, it is very important for investors to have a sense of the CPI's direction. Long-term bonds are usually a popular recession hedge, since they rise with deflation. Long-term Treasuries, such as those in TLT, have a negative correlation