VTWO - The Economic Cycle And The Commodity/Gold Ratio
2024-07-10 03:50:00 ET
Summary
- In our opinion, it’s not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated.
- We use the commodity/gold ratio (the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) divided by the US$ gold price) to define booms and busts.
- It’s not essential that the bust phase of the cycle contains a recession, but it’s rare for a bust to end until a recession has occurred.
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on May 31, 2024
[This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary at www.speculative-investor.com ] ...
The Economic Cycle And The Commodity/Gold Ratio