NETL - The Fertility Drought And Its Economic Consequences

• As the U.S. birth rate fell to a new low in 2020, it appears that COVID-19 and associated economic weakness/uncertainty has accelerated a preexisting trend of falling American fertility.
• If 2008-level fertility rates had persisted through 2020, 5.8 million more babies would have been born.
• Fewer babies being born has some unfortunate long-term economic consequences.
• A lower birth rate correlates with less innovation, more voter pushback against immigration, lower economic dynamism, and slower growth.
• This supports my long-term bullishness on long duration Treasury bonds and "deflation stocks."

For further details see: