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To no one's surprise, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged. This decision was widely telegraphed in advance. What was a surprise to many - but should not have been - was the markdown in prospective rate changes to zero in 2019 and only one in 2020. Pundits puzzled over what had changed since the much more hawkish policy rate projections in December. But what is overlooked is the fact that the "incoming data" that were available in March were much less encouraging than the December data. In December, the FOMC