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BIL - The Great Divergence: Nominal Vs. Real Treasury Yields
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill
The spread between nominal less inflation-indexed Treasury rates continues to rise - an increase that many analysts cite as a key indicator for the revival in reflation sentiment.
The key driver for this reflationary trend is primarily due to an ongoing slide in the real Treasury yield, supported by a relatively mild rise (so far) in the nominal yield.
Prior to the pandemic, the nominal and real 5-year yields were closely correlated. Over the last year, however, the relationship broke down.