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Five years ago, I suggested that the new normal was 3% NGDP growth, which included 1.2% RGDP growth and 1.8% rise in the GDP deflator. A few years later, I realized my growth forecast was a bit too low, and raised it to 1.5%. Now, the San Francisco Fed has come out with a new article suggesting that 1.6% growth is the new normal. This includes the CBO's estimate of 0.5% growth in the labor force going forward and the 1.1% average rise in productivity since 2004.