VTI - The March Labor Report Preview: The Cracks Are Deepening
2024-04-01 08:35:22 ET
Summary
- Consensus expectations for the March labor market data predict a slowdown in non-farm job creation to 200K and an unchanged unemployment rate.
- The household survey indicates a weakening labor market, with a significant increase in the unemployed people, suggesting that a recession could be near.
- The establishment survey still shows solid job creation, but mostly from a non-cyclical Health sector, and government jobs - which are not indicative of a strong economy.
- The stock market is facing a shock, either due to an unexpected recession, or even worse, stagflation.
The consensus expectations
The BLS is set to report the labor market data for March on April 5th. These are the current consensus market expectations:
The March Labor Report Preview: The Cracks Are Deepening