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Most of January's market outlooks discuss things that are currently on everyone’s mind: central banks, trade wars, Brexit, you name it. Also, each year everyone has an opinion of how stocks will do and most of the time, they are proven wrong anyway. I want to use this market outlook for something different: to highlight a risk that used to be on people’s minds but that has abated over the years. We're talking about something that will be considered a black swan event for Italy and the euro.