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Markets are again in an unsettled state. Gyrations in trade policy in the United States are one culprit, although more speculative financing practices at the fringes of the system are also running into difficulties. Although I am writing a book on recessions, my argument is that recessions are inherently hard to forecast. As a matter of internal consistency, I am not putting forth any odds that this latest scare will morph into wider recession. However, it is clear that something has spooked market participants. What is interesting about this that we can expect this to