QVMM - The Presidential Race And Financial Markets

2024-05-09 02:45:00 ET

Summary

• Financial markets are mostly still ignoring the presidential race because they face uncertainty and there is no clearly developing trend.
• Stock markets seem to have overcome fear of the Fed sufficiently to rally after a correction.
• The bond market seems sanguine as well. Credit spreads remain very tight.

I will start this commentary with a quote received from Politico Playbook on the Sunday morning after the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, Politico wrote:

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll out this morning shows 81% of voters think that Biden is too old for another term, while 55% feel the same way about Trump. Biden's approval rating is 35%. Trump's personal favorability is 33%. Two head-to-head numbers: Among all adults, Trump leads Biden, 46% to 44%. But among likely voters, Biden leads Trump, 49% to 45%.

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