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This should be obvious, but over the past couple of weeks, it seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle: There is a difference between believing the Fed will cut rates and believing the Fed should cut rates.
The former (the assumption that the Fed will embark on an easing cycle starting next month) is now the consensus view and that view is enshrined in market pricing. The latter (that it's a good idea for the Fed to cut rates) is not necessarily the consensus view for a variety of reasons, not the least of