SPSM - The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - August 2020
Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the July 8 article titled "The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - July 2020."
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature.
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of