ACTV - The S&P 500 May See A 15% To 20% Decline In H2 2024
2024-06-21 11:19:49 ET
Summary
- Markets could face significant declines of 15%-20% in the second half of 2024 due to risk repricing and contracting valuations.
- Credit spreads and implied volatility levels are rising, possibly due to uncertainties around upcoming elections and concerns about Fed rate cuts.
- Wider credit spreads indicate a shift in market risk-taking behavior, potentially leading to a contraction in P/E multiples and a pullback in equity markets.
The second half of 2024 could be considerably more tricky for the markets than the first. This could mean the S&P 500 could face significant declines by as much as 15% to 20% as markets reprice risk and contract valuations. Since the gains in the S&P 500 have been very concentrated and mostly due to multiple expansion, fundamentals will not support a pullback, and multiples could have some distance to fall....
The S&P 500 May See A 15% To 20% Decline In H2 2024