AFMC - The Soft Landing Lives For Now

2024-06-30 08:30:00 ET

Summary

• Markets are still enjoying a soft landing, defined as a world in which inflation is drifting lower, even if still-sticky in key areas, the global economy and labour markets remain unencumbered, and monetary policy is on track to ease modestly.
• In bond markets, yield curves remain inverted, though they have steepened a touch recently. Fixed income volatility is still falling, but the combination of bear-steepening and inverted curves is incessantly warning about a spike in the MOVE, but it isn’t happening, yet.
• interest rates in the major developed economies are about to come down and underlying cyclical conditions in the global economy are improving - what’s not to like?

It's been a while since I ran through my favourite charts for the global economy. I am happy to report that nothing much seems to have changed since my last overview . Markets are still enjoying a soft landing, defined as a world in which inflation is drifting lower, even if still-sticky in key areas, the global economy and labour markets remain unencumbered, and monetary policy is on track to ease modestly....

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