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For the first time since March, our favorite overbought/oversold indicator has shifted from risk reward favoring buyers to neutral. With nearly 30% of institutional quality stocks in our coverage trading 5% or more above their 200-day moving average ((DMA)), the risk of a 3% to 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index is rising.
Historically, a single-digit percentage reading like we got in March is coincident with a major bottom. However, a move above 30% during a recovery has suggested back-and-fill action as short-term investors look to preserve profit.