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The Fed is in the blackout window ahead of the July FOMC, and mercifully so.
As we saw on Thursday, the market is exceptionally sensitive to communications around the likely scope of the forthcoming rate cut (i.e., "Will it be 25 bp or 50?"). John Williams's fumbled effort to extoll the virtues of "going big" (so to speak) out of the gate when operating near the zero lower bound underscores the notion that, for the time being, we've reached the point of diminishing returns for Fedspeak. An insurance cut is coming, recent data (e.g.,