RWM - Thoughts On The Next Recession

Editor's note: This article was originally published on April 22 by Menzie Chinn here.

CEA Chair Kevin Hassett has stated a recession by next summer is impossible. I'm wary of such definitive statements.

From a May 2008 WSJ article:

"The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a meeting of editors and reporters from the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.

...

"I would be very surprised if the NBER, looking back at this period, would date this as a

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