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The Fed forecasts the US unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% in 2025, 80 bps above the 3.4% cycle low in 2022.
The Fed is incongruently predicting US GDP growth of 2% in 2025.
Market cycles tend to be hard on those who lack attention or understanding. Maybe this time will be different.
Yesterday morning, a milder-than-expected US CPI number boosted hopes that the US Fed may soon start lowering its policy rate. Financial markets pooped on the headline, further loosening financial conditions for some publicly traded companies....