V - Tracking Jeremy Grantham's GMO Capital Portfolio - Q4 2023 Update

2024-02-20 05:01:27 ET

Summary

• Jeremy Grantham's 13F portfolio value increased from $21.17B to $22.66B in the last quarter.
• The portfolio is diversified with over 500 different positions, but the top five stakes are Microsoft, UnitedHealth, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Johnson & Johnson.
• Grantham has expressed concerns about a market bubble, but the probability of a market crash has decreased from 85% to 70%.

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to GMO's 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on GMO's regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/13/2024. Jeremy Grantham's 13F portfolio value increased from $21.17B to $22.66B this quarter. The portfolio is diversified with recent 13F reports showing well over 500 different positions, although most of them are very small. There are 39 securities that are significantly large (more than 0.5% of the portfolio each) and they are the focus of this article. The largest five stakes are Microsoft Corporation, UnitedHealth, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Johnson & Johnson. They add up to ~18% of the portfolio. Please visit our Tracking Jeremy Grantham's GMO Portfolio series to get an idea of their investment philosophy and our last report for the fund's moves during Q3 2023.

As of September 30, 2023, GMO's 7-year asset class real return forecast is for US Large Cap asset class to have a negative 2% annualized return on one end and Emerging Value asset class to have a positive 6.6% annualized return at the other extreme. The firm currently has ~$75B under management, a far cry from ~$120B that they had at the peak. The assets are distributed among separately managed, institutional, and mutual fund accounts. Their flagship mutual fund is GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation Fund ( GBMFX ) which was incepted in 2003. They also offer an ETF that track "quality" stocks - GMO U.S. Quality ETF ( QLTY )....

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