AXP - Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q4 2022 Update

Summary

• Fisher’s 13F portfolio value increased from ~$133B to ~$148B in Q4 2022.
• They increased Advanced Micro Devices, Lam Research, and Intuit while decreasing Nvidia, Meta Platforms, PayPal Holdings, and Broadcom.
• The top three positions are Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. They add up to ~13% of the portfolio.

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher's 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management's regulatory 13F Form filed on 02/03/2023. Please visit our Tracking Kenneth Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Holdings article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and our previous update highlighting the fund's moves in Q3 2022.

This quarter, Fisher's 13F portfolio value increased ~11% from ~$133B to ~$148B. The number of holdings decreased from 1079 to 1025. Significantly large positions decreased from 73 to 66. The five largest individual stock positions are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, and Home Depot. Together, they account for ~17% of the 13F stock portfolio.

Note: Fisher manages ~100,000 client accounts with a total AUM of ~$197B. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance" which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities is an unknown.

To know more about Ken Fisher, check out his Research Papers (most notably in Behavioral Finance) and investment books .

Stake Increases:

Apple Inc. ( AAPL ): AAPL is currently the top position at 5.26% of the portfolio. It was built in 2012 at prices between $15 and $18. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at around the same price range. The position has since been increased substantially through incremental buying. The stock currently trades at ~$155. Last quarter saw a ~10% trimming while this quarter there was a marginal increase.

Amazon.com ( AMZN ): AMZN is a large (top three) 2.87% of the portfolio position. The stake is from 2011 at a cost-basis of ~$10. Q2 2016 saw a ~20% selling at prices between ~$29 and ~$36. There was another ~16% selling in Q2 2017 at prices between ~$44 and ~$51. The three quarters thru Q1 2018 had seen a ~15% increase at prices between ~$47 and ~$80 while the following quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between ~$69 and ~$88. There was a ~22% stake increase over the two quarters through Q1 2022 at prices between ~$136 and ~$185. The stock currently trades at ~$103. Last three quarters have also seen minor increases.

Home Depot ( HD ): HD is a 1.77% of the 13F portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. Q2 2017 saw a ~38% selling at prices between $146 and $159 and that was followed with another ~28% reduction in Q4 2017 at prices between $150 and $190. There was a reversal next quarter: ~14% stake increase at prices between $172 and $207. Q3 2019 saw a ~25% stake increase at prices between $202 and $234. The stock is now at ~$332. Last three years have also seen minor buying.

ASML Holding ( ASML ): ASML became a significant part of the portfolio in Q1 2018 when there was a ~10% stake increase at prices between ~$175 and ~$215. Next major activity was in Q1 2020 when there was a roughly one-third stake increase at prices between ~$214 and ~$318. The stock currently trades at ~$680 and the stake is now at 1.74% of the portfolio. Last eleven quarters have seen a ~38% further increase. They are continuing to build the position.

Salesforce ( CRM ): The 1.24% CRM position saw a ~180% increase in Q4 2018 at prices between $121 and $160 and another ~55% increase next quarter at prices between $130 and $167. Q3 2019 also saw a ~30% stake increase at prices between $140 and $160. There was another ~50% stake increase in Q1 2020 at prices between $124 and $193. Last quarter saw a ~20% selling while this quarter there was a ~9% stake increase. The stock is now at ~$171.

Goldman Sachs ( GS ) and Morgan Stanley ( MS ): These two positions were built in Q3 2022. GS is a 1.14% of the portfolio stake that saw a ~45% increase last quarter at prices between ~$282 and ~$356 and the stock currently trades at ~$370. The 1.09% MS position was built at prices between ~$75 and ~$92 and it is now at $99.43. Both stakes saw ~3% stake increases each this quarter.

Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ): AMD is currently a 1.13% of the portfolio stake. The original position is from Q1 2020 purchased at prices between $40 and $57. It saw a ~25% stake increase in Q4 2021 at prices between ~$100 and ~$162. That was followed with a ~22% increase next quarter at prices between ~$103 and ~$150. Last quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between ~$63 and ~$104. There was a roughly one-third stake increase this quarter at prices between ~$56 and ~$78. The stock currently trades at ~$86.

Note: they built this position while dropping Intel ( INTC ).

Charles Schwab ( SCHW ): SCHW is a 0.91% of the portfolio stake built last quarter at prices between ~$61 and ~$77 and the stock currently trades at ~$79. There was a ~5% stake increase this quarter.

3M ( MMM ), Abbott Labs ( ABT ), BlackRock Inc. ( BLK ), BHP Billiton (BHP), BNP Paribas ( OTCQX:BNPQF ), Capital One Financial ( COF ), Chevron Corp. ( CVX ), Caterpillar ( CAT ), Costco Wholesale ( COST ), Danaher Corp. ( DHR ), Eli Lilly ( LLY ), Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ), Intuitive Surgical ( ISRG ), Intuit ( INTU ), iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF ( USHY ), iShares Treasury 7-10 Yr. Bond, Invesco QQQ ( QQQ ), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ), Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ), Lam Research ( LRCX ), Mastercard Inc. ( MA ), Merck ( MRK ), NextEra Energy ( NEE ), Nike Inc. ( NKE ), Oracle Corporation ( ORCL ), Raytheon Technologies ( RTX ), Rio Tinto ( RIO ), Schlumberger ( SLB ), Shell plc ( SHEL ), SPDR Bloomberg BRCLYS LG TRS E, Starbucks ( SBUX ), Stryker Corp. ( SYK ), Target Corp. ( TGT ), Thermo Fisher Scientific ( TMO ), TotalEnergies ( TTE ), Toyota Motor ( TM ), Union Pacific ( UNP ), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF ( VCIT ), and Walmart ( WMT ): These small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were increased this quarter.

Stake Decreases:

Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ): MSFT is a top-three 4.57% of the portfolio position. It is a very long-term stake that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade. The two years thru Q2 2019 had seen a combined ~30% increase at prices between ~$69 and ~$137. The period since have seen another ~40% increase at prices between ~$135 and ~$343. There was a ~3% trimming this quarter. The stock is now at ~$258.

Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ): GOOG was a very small position that was built-up to a substantial 2% stake in 2011 at prices between ~$12 and ~$15. Recent activity follows. Q3 2020 saw a ~8% selling at prices between ~$71 and ~$86 while next quarter there was a ~17% stake increase at prices between ~$73 and ~$92. Last seven quarters had also seen minor increases while this quarter there was a ~9% trimming. The stock is now at ~$105. The position stands at 2.49% of the portfolio.

American Express ( AXP ): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original position was around 9M shares purchased at an average cost in the 50s and the current stake is 14.51M shares. The two years thru Q2 2020 had seen a combined ~40% stake increase at prices between $74 and $138. The stock is now at ~$179 and the stake is at 1.45% of the portfolio. Last several quarters have seen minor trimming.

Netflix ( NFLX ): The 1.28% NFLX stake saw a ~50% stake increase in Q1 2020 at prices between ~$299 and ~$388. Q4 2021 saw a ~30% stake increase at prices between ~$587 and ~$692. That was followed with a ~17% increase next quarter at prices between ~$331 and ~$597. The stock currently trades at ~$366. Last two quarters had seen minor increases while this quarter there was a minor ~4% trimming.

Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM ): TSM is a very long-term 1.23% of the 13F portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake has wavered. Recent activity follows: The ten quarters thru Q4 2018 saw periodic buying while the next seven quarters saw minor selling. The stock currently trades at ~$95. Last nine quarters have seen only minor adjustments.

Visa Inc. ( V ) : The Visa position was first purchased in 2012 at much lower prices compared to the current price of ~$230. The size of the stake had more than tripled in the following eight years through incremental purchases almost every quarter. Q3 2021 saw an about turn: ~45% selling over the next three quarters at prices between ~$190 and ~$251. That was followed with a ~40% reduction last quarter at prices between ~$178 and ~$217. The position is now at 1.17% of the portfolio. There was marginal trimming this quarter.

Adobe Inc. ( ADBE ): ADBE is a 1.15% portfolio stake that saw a ~300% increase in Q4 2018 at prices between $205 and $275 and another ~75% increase next quarter at prices between $216 and $272. Q3 2019 also saw a ~30% stake increase at prices between $272 and $311. Q1 2020 saw another ~25% stake increase at prices between $285 and $383. The stock is now at ~$379. The seven quarters through Q4 2021 had seen minor buying while in the last four quarters there was a ~30% selling.

Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA ): NVDA is a ~1% of the portfolio position built last quarter at prices between ~$121 and ~$192. There was a ~17% selling this quarter at prices between ~$112 and ~$181. The stock is now at ~$211.

Meta Platforms ( META ): The META stake was built in Q1 2020 at prices between ~$150 and ~$222. Q3 2021 saw a ~50% stake increase at prices between ~$337 and ~$382. That was followed with a ~25% stake increase next quarter at prices between ~$307 and ~$348. Q1 2022 also saw a ~17% increase at prices between ~$187 and ~$339. There was a ~23% selling this quarter at prices between ~$89 and ~$140. The stock is now at ~$187 and the stake is at 0.74% of the portfolio.

PayPal Holdings ( PYPL ): The 0.65% PYPL stake was built in H1 2020 at prices between ~$85 and ~$174. The stock currently trades near the low end of that range at ~$86. Q4 2021 saw a ~20% stake increase at prices between ~$179 and ~$272. That was followed with a ~16% increase next quarter at prices between ~$94 and ~$195. There was a ~23% selling this quarter at prices between ~$68 and ~$94.

Broadcom ( AVGO ), ConocoPhillips ( COP ), iShares iBoxx ( LQD ), iShares Expanded Tech ETF ( IGV ), LVMH Moet Hennessy ADR ( OTCPK:LVMUY ), L'Oreal ADR ( OTCPK:LRLCY ), Novo Nordisk A/S ADR ( NVO ), and Siemens AG ( OTCPK:SIEGY ): These small (less than ~1.2% of the portfolio each) stakes were decreased this quarter.

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher's 13F stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the 13F portfolio each are individually listed) in Q4 2022:

For further details see: