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It happened before, in 2012-2013, but the US economy muddled through a soft patch. Is it different this time? It's a question worth pondering as the global economy struggles to model the spreading coronavirus that's weighing on China and, increasingly, reverberating in economies around the world. The European Commission today, for example, advises that coronavirus is a "key downside risk" for the bloc's economy.
The Treasury market appears to be pricing in this risk. Notably, real yields for key maturities in inflation-indexed government bonds ((TIPS)) have slipped into negative terrain lately. From a big-picture perspective,