USTB - Triple Top Developing For U.S. Recession Probability

2024-07-30 09:40:00 ET

Summary

• The method we've used to track the probability of recession in the U.S. since the U.S. Treasury yield curve first inverted in October 2022 is about to do something it hasn't done before. It's going to record a "triple top".
• In the past week, the yield of the 2-year Treasury dropped below the level of the 30-year.
• With the Federal Reserve on track to start cutting shorter-term interest rates, the "reversion" of the Treasury yield curve will gain speed in the months ahead.

Third time's the charm?

That's a question we're asking because, for all intents and purposes, the method we've used to track the probability of recession in the U.S. since the U.S. Treasury yield curve first inverted in October 2022 is about to do something it hasn't done before. It's going to record a " triple top "....

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