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home / news releases / TRUE - TrueCar Forecasts Industry Retail Sales Soar 34% for the 4th Quarter


TRUE - TrueCar Forecasts Industry Retail Sales Soar 34% for the 4th Quarter

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 28, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar , Inc . projects that ?total retail sales for Q4 are expected to be up 0.6% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 34.2% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Total new vehicle sales will reach 1,605,101 units in December 2020, down 6.5% from a year ago, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.2 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects US retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,428,094 units, a decrease of 2.2% from a year ago, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Average transaction price (ATP) is projected to be up 5.3% or $1,950 from a year ago and up 2.6% or $988 from November 2020, setting an all-time record as the figure ticks closer to $40,000. TrueCar projects that US revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $62 billion for December 2020, up 10.2% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 35.6% from last month.

“In the final days of 2020, we can finally look in the rearview mirror and appreciate the tremendous recovery that the automotive industry has made since the pandemic derailed auto sales in March. Retail vehicle sales have nearly reached normal levels with sales down only 2.2% from last year, which is a truly impressive outcome,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “The momentum from a strong third quarter carried into the fourth quarter and solidified the industry’s comeback. Production and inventory have gone back up in the fourth quarter and, as a result, retail sales are up 34% quarter-over-quarter.”

Total new vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 14.6M, down 15% year-over-year for 2020 and new vehicle retail sales are forecasted to reach 12.7M, down 8% compared with 2019. Used vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 38.4M for 2020, down 6% year-over-year.

Insights from TrueCar’s end-of-year forecast by brand:

  • Three brands increased volume in 2020 (Tesla, Volvo, and Alfa Romeo) --- all luxury brands.
  • Volvo moved up the most in the rankings, up four places from 27 to 23.
  • Tesla, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, and Lincoln each moved up two spots.
  • Tesla surpassed Audi sales to become the #4 luxury brand.

“Luxury vehicle sales were an unexpected sales story for 2020, with higher-income Americans, some of whom were not as financially impacted by the pandemic, delivering strong luxury vehicle purchases this year,” added Woolard. “Brands such as Tesla, Volvo, and Alfa Romeo increased their volume year-over-year, and even Lamborghini broke sales records in 2020.”

Additional Insights: (forecast by TrueCar )

  • Total retail sales for December 2020 are expected to be down 2.2% from a year ago and up 6% from November 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for December 2020 are expected to be down 31.3% from a year ago and up 34.3% from November 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 5.3% or $1,950 from a year ago and up 2.6% or $988 from November 2020.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4.4% from a year ago from 16.9 million units to 16.2 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for December 2020 are expected to reach 3.1 million, up 6% from a year ago and up 7% from November 2020.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.0%.

“Average transaction price has continued to increase month-over-month this year and set a record in December, with the average new vehicle in the US costing $38,979. This is a notable increase of almost $1,000 from last month,” said Alain Nana-Sinkam, Vice President of Strategic Initiatives at TrueCar. “New vehicle buyers are gravitating toward luxury brands such as Porsche, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes. These brands are experiencing some of the biggest increases in their average transaction price month-over-month.”

Quarterly Insights: (forecast by TrueCar )

  • Total unit sales for Q4 are expected to be down 3.8% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 4.5% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q4 are expected to be up 0.6% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 34.2% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

December 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer
Dec 2020 Forecast
Dec 2019 Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
YoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
41,727
38,159
31,005
9.4
%
-2.4
%
34.6
%
10.5
%
Daimler
28,568
35,279
29,580
-19.0
%
-27.7
%
-3.4
%
-20.7
%
FCA
198,108
191,075
137,913
3.7
%
-7.4
%
43.6
%
18.0
%
Ford
197,476
216,439
148,816
-8.8
%
-18.5
%
32.7
%
9.0
%
GM
306,843
277,640
212,415
10.5
%
-1.3
%
44.5
%
18.7
%
Honda
133,574
136,566
102,614
-2.2
%
-12.7
%
30.2
%
6.9
%
Hyundai
69,174
66,945
56,106
3.3
%
-7.7
%
23.3
%
1.3
%
Kia
54,813
51,229
47,897
7.0
%
-4.5
%
14.4
%
-6.0
%
Nissan
100,925
104,781
72,816
-3.7
%
-14.0
%
38.6
%
13.9
%
Subaru
63,675
62,364
50,413
2.1
%
-8.8
%
26.3
%
3.8
%
Tesla
35,197
23,300
21,650
51.1
%
34.9
%
62.6
%
33.5
%
Toyota
250,877
207,373
205,523
21.0
%
8.0
%
22.1
%
0.3
%
Volkswagen Group
61,962
58,816
51,397
5.3
%
-5.9
%
20.6
%
-1.0
%
Industry
1,605,101
1,533,555
1,214,891
4.7
%
-6.5
%
32.1
%
8.5
%


Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer
Dec 2020 Forecast
Dec 2019 Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
YoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
40,991
35,290
30,030
16.2
%
3.7
%
36.5
%
12.1
%
Daimler
27,984
32,707
28,753
-14.4
%
-23.6
%
-2.7
%
-20.1
%
FCA
164,000
147,745
121,785
11.0
%
-0.9
%
34.7
%
10.6
%
Ford
161,082
162,750
116,827
-1.0
%
-11.6
%
37.9
%
13.3
%
GM
266,528
213,566
185,323
24.8
%
11.4
%
43.8
%
18.1
%
Honda
133,016
135,438
102,141
-1.8
%
-12.3
%
30.2
%
7.0
%
Hyundai
64,361
56,015
51,118
14.9
%
2.6
%
25.9
%
3.4
%
Kia
52,774
47,036
46,529
12.2
%
0.2
%
13.4
%
-6.8
%
Nissan
82,780
82,846
67,602
-0.1
%
-10.8
%
22.5
%
0.6
%
Subaru
61,301
59,914
49,429
2.3
%
-8.6
%
24.0
%
1.9
%
Tesla
35,185
23,300
21,636
51.0
%
34.8
%
62.6
%
33.6
%
Toyota
222,844
195,176
190,235
14.2
%
1.9
%
17.1
%
-3.8
%
Volkswagen Group
61,009
56,137
51,189
8.7
%
-3.0
%
19.2
%
-2.1
%
Industry
1,428,094
1,303,388
1,106,613
9.6
%
-2.2
%
29.1
%
6.0
%


Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer
Dec 2020 Forecast
Dec 2019 Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
YoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
736
2,869
975
-74.3
%
-77.1
%
-24.5
%
-38.0
%
Daimler
584
2,572
827
-77.3
%
-79.7
%
-29.4
%
-42.0
%
FCA
34,108
43,330
16,128
-21.3
%
-29.7
%
111.5
%
73.7
%
Ford
36,394
53,689
31,989
-32.2
%
-39.5
%
13.8
%
-6.5
%
GM
40,315
64,074
27,092
-37.1
%
-43.8
%
48.8
%
22.2
%
Honda
558
1,128
473
-50.5
%
-55.8
%
18.0
%
-3.1
%
Hyundai
4,813
10,930
4,988
-56.0
%
-60.7
%
-3.5
%
-20.7
%
Kia
2,039
4,193
1,368
-51.4
%
-56.6
%
49.0
%
22.4
%
Nissan
18,145
21,935
5,214
-17.3
%
-26.1
%
248.0
%
185.9
%
Subaru
2,374
2,450
984
-3.1
%
-13.5
%
141.3
%
98.2
%
Tesla
12
-
14
-
-
-14.3
%
-29.6
%
Toyota
28,033
12,197
15,288
129.8
%
105.2
%
83.4
%
50.6
%
Volkswagen Group
953
2,679
208
-64.4
%
-68.2
%
358.2
%
276.4
%
Industry
177,008
230,167
108,278
-23.1
%
-31.3
%
63.5
%
34.3
%


Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer
Dec 2020 Forecast
Dec 2019 Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
YoY % Change
MoM % Change
BMW
1.8
%
7.5
%
3.1
%
-76.5
%
-43.9
%
Daimler
2.0
%
7.3
%
2.8
%
-72.0
%
-26.9
%
FCA
17.2
%
22.7
%
11.7
%
-24.1
%
47.2
%
Ford
18.4
%
24.8
%
21.5
%
-25.7
%
-14.3
%
GM
13.1
%
23.1
%
12.8
%
-43.1
%
3.0
%
Honda
0.4
%
0.8
%
0.5
%
-49.4
%
-9.4
%
Hyundai
7.0
%
16.3
%
8.9
%
-57.4
%
-21.7
%
Kia
3.7
%
8.2
%
2.9
%
-54.6
%
30.2
%
Nissan
18.0
%
20.9
%
7.2
%
-14.1
%
151.1
%
Subaru
3.7
%
3.9
%
2.0
%
-5.1
%
91.0
%
Tesla
0.0
%
0.0
%
0.1
%
-
-47.3
%
Toyota
11.2
%
5.9
%
7.4
%
90.0
%
50.2
%
Volkswagen Group
1.5
%
4.6
%
0.4
%
-66.2
%
280.1
%
Industry
11.0
%
15.0
%
8.9
%
-26.5
%
23.7
%


Total Market Share

Manufacturer
Dec 2020 Forecast
Dec 2019 Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
BMW
2.6
%
2.5
%
2.6
%
Daimler
1.8
%
2.3
%
2.4
%
FCA
12.3
%
12.5
%
11.4
%
Ford
12.3
%
14.1
%
12.2
%
GM
19.1
%
18.1
%
17.5
%
Honda
8.3
%
8.9
%
8.4
%
Hyundai
4.3
%
4.4
%
4.6
%
Kia
3.4
%
3.3
%
3.9
%
Nissan
6.3
%
6.8
%
6.0
%
Subaru
4.0
%
4.1
%
4.1
%
Tesla
2.2
%
1.5
%
1.8
%
Toyota
15.6
%
13.5
%
16.9
%
Volkswagen Group
3.9
%
3.8
%
4.2
%


Retail Market Share

Manufacturer
Dec 2020 Forecast
Dec 2019 Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
BMW
2.9
%
2.7
%
2.7
%
Daimler
2.0
%
2.5
%
2.6
%
FCA
11.5
%
11.3
%
11.0
%
Ford
11.3
%
12.5
%
10.6
%
GM
18.7
%
16.4
%
16.7
%
Honda
9.3
%
10.4
%
9.2
%
Hyundai
4.5
%
4.3
%
4.6
%
Kia
3.7
%
3.6
%
4.2
%
Nissan
5.8
%
6.4
%
6.1
%
Subaru
4.3
%
4.6
%
4.5
%
Tesla
2.5
%
1.8
%
2.0
%
Toyota
15.6
%
15.0
%
17.2
%
Volkswagen Group
4.3
%
4.3
%
4.6
%


Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer
Dec 2020
Forecast
Dec 2019
Actual
Nov 2020 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
$61,779
$58,988
$59,733
4.7
%
3.4
%
Daimler
$60,259
$57,641
$57,393
4.5
%
5.0
%
FCA
$44,618
$41,940
$44,167
6.4
%
1.0
%
Ford
$44,750
$42,785
$43,840
4.6
%
2.1
%
GM
$44,776
$41,393
$43,805
8.2
%
2.2
%
Honda
$31,247
$29,938
$31,100
4.4
%
0.5
%
Hyundai
$29,733
$26,854
$29,204
10.7
%
1.8
%
Kia
$28,460
$26,108
$28,027
9.0
%
1.5
%
Nissan
$30,411
$29,767
$30,006
2.2
%
1.3
%
Subaru
$30,777
$30,463
$30,528
1.0
%
0.8
%
Toyota
$36,272
$34,330
$35,696
5.7
%
1.6
%
Volkswagen Group
$45,195
$43,093
$43,904
4.9
%
2.9
%
Industry
$38,979
$37,029
$37,991
5.3
%
2.6
%


Incentive Spending

Manufacturer
Dec 2020
Forecast
Dec 2019
Actual
Nov 2020
Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
$5,774
$5,901
$5,211
-2.1
%
10.8
%
Daimler
$4,336
$6,246
$4,438
-30.6
%
-2.3
%
FCA
$4,559
$5,346
$4,567
-14.7
%
-0.2
%
Ford
$4,914
$4,952
$4,449
-0.8
%
10.4
%
GM
$4,649
$5,742
$4,974
-19.0
%
-6.5
%
Honda
$2,750
$2,615
$2,460
5.2
%
11.8
%
Hyundai
$2,926
$3,101
$2,497
-5.6
%
17.2
%
Kia
$3,304
$3,686
$2,999
-10.4
%
10.2
%
Nissan
$4,940
$4,781
$4,496
3.3
%
9.9
%
Subaru
$1,540
$1,244
$1,505
23.8
%
2.3
%
Toyota
$3,027
$2,854
$2,690
6.1
%
12.5
%
Volkswagen Group
$4,554
$4,896
$4,263
-7.0
%
6.8
%
Industry
$3,991
$4,309
$3,783
-7.4
%
5.5
%


Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer
Dec 2020
Forecast
Dec 2019
Actual
Nov 2020
Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
9.3
%
10.0
%
8.7
%
-6.6
%
7.1
%
Daimler
7.2
%
10.8
%
7.7
%
-33.6
%
-6.9
%
FCA
10.2
%
12.7
%
10.3
%
-19.8
%
-1.2
%
Ford
11.0
%
11.6
%
10.1
%
-5.1
%
8.2
%
GM
10.4
%
13.9
%
11.4
%
-25.1
%
-8.6
%
Honda
8.8
%
8.7
%
7.9
%
0.8
%
11.3
%
Hyundai
9.8
%
11.5
%
8.5
%
-14.8
%
15.1
%
Kia
11.6
%
14.1
%
10.7
%
-17.8
%
8.5
%
Nissan
16.2
%
16.1
%
15.0
%
1.1
%
8.4
%
Subaru
5.0
%
4.1
%
4.9
%
22.5
%
1.5
%
Toyota
8.3
%
8.3
%
7.5
%
0.4
%
10.7
%
Volkswagen Group
10.1
%
11.4
%
9.7
%
-11.3
%
3.8
%
Industry
10.2
%
11.6
%
10.0
%
-12.0
%
2.8
%


Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer
Q4 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2020
YoY % Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change
QoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
103,531
100,738
78,634
2.8
%
1.5
%
31.7
%
28.3
%
Daimler
87,230
104,672
72,868
-16.7
%
-17.7
%
19.7
%
16.7
%
FCA
496,197
545,693
504,058
-9.1
%
-10.2
%
-1.6
%
-4.1
%
Ford
528,112
598,728
549,134
-11.8
%
-12.9
%
-3.8
%
-6.3
%
GM
778,751
732,618
662,143
6.3
%
5.0
%
17.6
%
14.6
%
Honda
363,175
401,961
388,433
-9.6
%
-10.8
%
-6.5
%
-8.9
%
Hyundai
183,729
188,742
174,573
-2.7
%
-3.9
%
5.2
%
2.6
%
Kia
158,804
151,740
165,013
4.7
%
3.3
%
-3.8
%
-6.2
%
Nissan
245,420
301,291
221,150
-18.5
%
-19.6
%
11.0
%
8.2
%
Subaru
175,499
174,788
169,446
0.4
%
-0.9
%
3.6
%
1.0
%
Tesla
47,064
53,750
55,700
-12.4
%
-13.5
%
-15.5
%
-17.6
%
Toyota
660,336
604,017
558,449
9.3
%
7.9
%
18.2
%
15.3
%
Volkswagen Group
164,463
167,745
147,880
-2.0
%
-3.2
%
11.2
%
8.4
%
Industry
4,181,850
4,290,911
3,898,745
-2.5
%
-3.8
%
7.3
%
4.5
%


Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer
Q4 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2020
YoY % Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change
QoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
101,705
92,484
51,760
10.0
%
8.6
%
96.5
%
91.5
%
Daimler
85,447
96,189
56,995
-11.2
%
-12.3
%
49.9
%
46.1
%
FCA
410,767
415,481
322,158
-1.1
%
-2.4
%
27.5
%
24.3
%
Ford
430,783
447,712
355,210
-3.8
%
-5.0
%
21.3
%
18.2
%
GM
676,434
583,040
438,178
16.0
%
14.5
%
54.4
%
50.5
%
Honda
361,658
398,547
290,488
-9.3
%
-10.4
%
24.5
%
21.3
%
Hyundai
170,945
155,082
141,767
10.2
%
8.8
%
20.6
%
17.5
%
Kia
152,897
136,668
122,218
11.9
%
10.5
%
25.1
%
21.9
%
Nissan
201,297
228,008
151,149
-11.7
%
-12.8
%
33.2
%
29.8
%
Subaru
168,956
168,684
133,709
0.2
%
-1.1
%
26.4
%
23.2
%
Tesla
76,421
53,750
25,248
42.2
%
40.4
%
202.7
%
195.0
%
Toyota
586,550
567,177
386,069
3.4
%
2.1
%
51.9
%
48.1
%
Volkswagen Group
161,933
162,686
114,221
-0.5
%
-1.7
%
41.8
%
38.2
%
Industry
3,720,682
3,652,993
2,702,199
1.9
%
0.6
%
37.7
%
34.2
%


Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer
Q4 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2020
BMW
2.5
%
2.3
%
2.0
%
Daimler
2.1
%
2.4
%
1.9
%
FCA
11.9
%
12.7
%
12.9
%
Ford
12.6
%
14.0
%
14.1
%
GM
18.6
%
17.1
%
17.0
%
Honda
8.7
%
9.4
%
10.0
%
Hyundai
4.4
%
4.4
%
4.5
%
Kia
3.8
%
3.5
%
4.2
%
Nissan
5.9
%
7.0
%
5.7
%
Subaru
4.2
%
4.1
%
4.3
%
Tesla
1.1
%
1.3
%
1.4
%
Toyota
15.8
%
14.1
%
14.3
%
Volkswagen Group
3.9
%
3.9
%
3.8
%


Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer
Q4 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2020
BMW
2.7
%
2.5
%
1.9
%
Daimler
2.3
%
2.6
%
2.1
%
FCA
11.0
%
11.4
%
11.9
%
Ford
11.6
%
12.3
%
13.1
%
GM
18.2
%
16.0
%
16.2
%
Honda
9.7
%
10.9
%
10.8
%
Hyundai
4.6
%
4.2
%
5.2
%
Kia
4.1
%
3.7
%
4.5
%
Nissan
5.4
%
6.2
%
5.6
%
Subaru
4.5
%
4.6
%
4.9
%
Tesla
2.1
%
1.5
%
0.9
%
Toyota
15.8
%
15.5
%
14.3
%
Volkswagen Group
4.4
%
4.5
%
4.2
%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com , and follow us on Facebook or Twitter . TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/bde61465-7855-4a50-bab6-561da628c7d0


TrueCar PR Contacts:Shadee Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com424.258.8694Tanya Kohan tkohan@truecar.com  714.425.6319

Stock Information

Company Name: TrueCar Inc.
Stock Symbol: TRUE
Market: NASDAQ
Website: truecar.com

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