TWTR - Twitter's board of directors playing 'high stakes poker' as deal saga continues

The ongoing saga between Twitter ( NYSE: TWTR ) and Elon Musk over Musk's acquisition of the social network looks to be nearing an end , but some analysts believe the company's board of directors is now playing a game of "high stakes poker" with the deal in its final stages.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said that investors are waiting for Twitter ( TWTR ) to officially reach an agreement to end its litigation, which is believed to come at "any time" and clear the path for the deal to be done. However, there is still "massive distrust" on both sides, given the ongoing saga since Musk attempted to walk away from the deal earlier this year.

And with neither party having filed a stipulation to stay, the court case is still on track to start October 17, according to the Delaware judge set to preside over the case.

"We continue to believe the deal gets done smoothly despite some late night poker moves from the Twitter camp with the Delaware Court case around the corner (set to begin October 17th) and ongoing depositions," Ives wrote in a note to clients.

Ives added that some concerns have cropped up about Musk's $12.5B debt financing, though the analyst added that the banks that backed him are "essentially cemented to this Twitter debt deal" with likely no way out, even with debt markets having turned rocky since the deal was announced.

Wells Fargo analyst Brian Fitzgerald said that with the deal potentially nearing an end, it should not be viewed as anything more than a "one-off" and is not likely to be part of a "broader consolidation wave."

"We believe [Twitter's] pace of consumer and monetization product innovation has lagged in recent months amid staff departures and distractions and that usage growth has decelerated ..., though we believe that, for its core use cases (one-to-many communication, cultural/political interest graph, etc.), [Twitter] faces only imperfect substitutes in the market and could reaccelerate growth with improved execution, assuming staff departures and distractions recede post deal close," Fitzgerald wrote.

The analyst added that if Musk were to make "significant changes" to the platform's support of speech rights, it would likely hurt advertising revenue, which could then be redeployed onto other platforms such as TikTok, Meta Platforms ( META ) Reels, Google's ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) YouTue Shorts, Snap's ( SNAP ) Spotlight, Pinterest's ( PINS ) Idea Pins and other emerging advertising inventory.

On Wednesday, it was reported that Apollo Global Management ( APO ) was no longer looking to lead the preferred financing portion of Musk's leveraged buyout of Twitter .

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