SPVM - U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment
2024-04-16 14:15:00 ET
Summary
- Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area and that’s another reason to think the Bank of England will wait until August to cut rates for the first time, despite signs of a cooling jobs market.
- The latest jobs report is a nuanced one, but we suspect most policymakers will read it as net-hawkish on the basis of those wage figures.
- We would expect wage growth to slow further into the summer, reaching the 4-4.5% area.
By James Smith
The latest UK jobs report is a bit of a mixed bag, but a surprise surge in private sector pay will be what ultimately catches the eye of Bank of England policymakers. Regular pay, which strips out volatile one-off/bonus payments, rose by 12% on a month-on-month annualised basis....
U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment