HYMLF - U.S. auto sales are forecast by S&P to be steady in March but not spectacular

2023-03-23 15:16:29 ET

S&P Global Mobility issued a mixed assessment of U.S. auto demand as part of its preview on March sales.

Analyst Chris Hopson pointed to incoming reports of sustained, but still muted retail demand in March. The reports are said to reflect that some auto consumers are willing, ready, and able to enter into a new vehicle agreement, despite rising interest rates and still-high vehicle price levels.

With volume for the month projected at 1.27M units, S&P Global Mobility projects March U.S. auto sales to be up more than 11% from the month-prior tally to 1.27M units, which is largely attributable to the three additional selling days for the month. The expected March volume would be aligned with the year-ago period, reflecting that sales momentum will be difficult to sustain given current economic headwinds. The March U.S. auto sales tally is expected to translate to an estimated sales pace of 13.8M units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), which is down meaningfully from the January SAAR reading of 15.9M units. The light truck SAAR for the month is estimated at 11.1M and the passenger car SAAR is estimated at 2.8M.

"However, that pace would bring the first quarter average sales rate to 14.9 million units. This would represent the strongest quarterly pace since the second quarter of 2021 – albeit nowhere near the SAAR reading of 16.7 million units at that time, when the auto market was still experiencing the pleasantness of stimulus checks and before supply chain issues began."

The mixed reading on auto demand hits with interest rates much higher than a year ago, but forecast to peak this summer.

Tesla ( TSLA ), General Motors ( NYSE: GM ), and Ford ( F ) will report Q1 monthly deliveries for the U.S. during the first few days of April.

Auto stocks: Toyota ( TM ), Tesla ( TSLA ), General Motors ( GM ), Honda ( HMC ), Ferrari ( RACE ), Ford ( F ), Hyundai ( OTCPK:HYMLF ), Nissan ( OTCPK:NSANY ), Mercedes-Benz ( OTCPK:MBGAF ), Volkswagen ( OTCPK:VLKAF ), BMW ( OTCPK:BMWYY ), Stellantis ( STLA ), Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ), and Subaru ( OTCPK:FUJHY ).

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