TWO - U.S. home prices rise by most in 10 months amid inventory shortage - Redfin

2023-09-03 16:36:00 ET

A lack of U.S. homes for sale has pushed up home prices to the highest level since October, online real estate brokerage Redfin ( RDFN ) reported this past week, as homeowners don’t want to give up their relatively low mortgage rates.

The median home-sale price climbed 5% to $380K from a year before during the hour weeks ended August 27, the Thursday report said, adding the typical monthly mortgage payment hit $2,649 -- the highest since at least 2015, when RDFN started publishing its weekly housing market data.

The inventory shortage “is causing competition for desirable homes despite high mortgage rates and a relatively small pool of buyers.” Redfin ( RDFN ) noted the bulk of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, compared with average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.18% as of August 31.

“Another reason for the big year-over-year price increase is that prices came down rapidly at this time last year, with rising mortgage rates sidelining buyers.”

What’s more, the total number of homes for sale is off 19%, the biggest annual drop since February 2022, and new listings are down 10%.

Miami, Florida, saw the biggest Y/Y increase in home prices among the 50 most populous metropolitan areas. The city’s median home-sale price jumped 17% from a year ago, representing the biggest increase the metro area has seen since October 2022.

The report pointed out that, unlike most U.S. metros, Miami home prices never registered an annual drop in the first half of the year. In addition to its supply shortage, the outsized home-price increase comes as “Miami attracts an influx of out-of-town buyers and investors, despite increasing risk of climate-driven natural disasters such as hurricanes and flooding. Those buyers are often undeterred by high mortgage rates because they pay cash; two in five recent Miami homebuyers paid all cash.”

Most of the metros under RDFN’s coverage posted Y/Y price gains in August, while just six saw declines: Austin, Texas (-8.7%), Newark, Phoenix, Arizona (-2.4%), Portland, Oregon (-1.4%), Fort Worth, Texas (-1.3%), Las Vegas (-1.2%) and San Antonio, Texas (-0.5%).

Homebuilder stocks: D.R. Horton ( DHI ), KB Home ( KBH ), PulteGroup ( PHM ), Toll Brothers ( TOL ), Lennar ( LEN ), Beazer Homes ( BZH ), Tri Pointe Homes ( TPH ), Hovnanian Enterprises ( HOV ) and NVR ( NVR ).

Mortgage REITs: Annaly Capital Management ( NLY ), AGNC Investment ( AGNC ), Chimera Investment ( CIM ), Two Harbors Investment ( TWO ), Orchid Island Capital ( ORC ) and New York Mortgage Trust ( NYMT ).

More on the U.S. Housing Market:

• I Disagree With Buffett Buying Lennar And D.R. Horton
• AGNC Investment: Not Out Of The Woods Yet After Jackson Hole
• Pending home sales in July surprise with an increase

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