ISHP - U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm
2024-04-16 03:39:00 ET
Summary
- Remarkably strong retail sales numbers for March contradict somewhat weaker survey and credit card spending evidence.
- But with jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to carry through with interest rate cuts anytime soon.
- We expect spending and inflation to slow, but until it does, the Fed won’t be contemplating rate cuts.
Retail sales beat all expectations
US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected, with only one forecaster predicting this outcome out of 64 analysts. February’s growth rate was revised up to +0.9% from +0.6% MoM with March strength led by non-store retailers (+2.7% MoM), general merchandise (+1.1%) and gasoline station sales (up 2.1%). There was some weakness though with sporting goods (-1.8%), clothing (-1.6%) electronics (-1.2% and motor vehicles (-0.7%) all falling. This means that the control group, which excludes volatile items and better matches with broader spending trends, rose 1.1% versus the 0.4% consensus while February was again revised higher to +0.3% from 0.0%....
U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm