AFMC - U.S. Jobs Surge Means No March Rate Cut
2024-02-02 10:42:00 ET
Summary
- January payrolls surged 353k versus 185k consensus.
- The blowout jobs report - payrolls surging, wages jumping, unemployment falling - means the Fed will be in no hurry to cut interest rates.
- Nevertheless, the report contradicts lots of evidence elsewhere, while the big drop in hours worked and growing proportion of part-time workers gives pause for thought.
By James Knightley , Chief International Economist
Crazy strong jobs number means Fed will wait
January’s US employment report is crazy strong. Payrolls surged 353k versus 185k consensus, where the even highest forecast of 300k was well shy of the outcome, especially when we add in the 126k of upward revisions to the past two months of data. As the chart below shows, the momentum in job creation is on the rise again, but this time it isn’t merely the leisure & hospitality, government and education & healthcare services, which accounted for 80% of the jobs added in 2023....
U.S. Jobs Surge Means No March Rate Cut