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YGRN - U.S. Oil Production Set To Decline More From Here On Out
Bank of Montreal ZC SP ETN REDEEM 25/03/2039 USD 50 - Ser E YGRN
Real-time US oil production reading indicates ~10.783 mb/d into October.
With September US oil production now set at ~11 mb/d average, the implied decline rate between August and September excluding shut-ins is around ~500k b/d.
Consensus has US oil production flat around ~11 mb/d for the next year. This will prove to be too optimistic.
We have US oil production declining to ~10.4 mb/d by year-end and depending on where WTI is, it could be even lower by mid-2021.
The consensus production forecast will only come true if WTI is closer to $60/bbl WTI.