QVMS - U.S. Recession/Expansion Watch

• The latest leading economic data indicate that the US recovery/expansion is intact and that US GDP will continue to grow at an above-average rate for at least two more quarters, albeit not as quickly as it grew during the first half of this year.
• Note that the GDP growth number for Q3-2021, the preliminary calculation of which will be reported late this month, could reveal substantial deceleration from the 6%-7% growth that was reported for the first two quarters of this year.
• The performances of leading and coincident economic indicators show that the US economy remains in the boom phase of the boom-bust cycle, meaning that the economic landscape remains bullish for industrial commodities relative to gold.

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