QQEW - U.S. Recession Probability Nears A Double Top

2024-03-19 17:30:00 ET

Summary

• The odds the U.S. economy will see a recession start sometime in the next twelve months continued to rise during the past six weeks.
• The prospect for a recession has ticked up since bottoming largely because the inversion of the U.S. Treasury curve deepened since December 2023.
• The Recession Probability Track indicates the probability a recession will someday be officially determined to have begun sometime in the next 12 months.

The odds the U.S. economy will see a recession start sometime in the next twelve months continued to rise during the past six weeks. Since our previous update , that probability has risen a couple of notches to just over 76%. This resurgence began after the recession probability bottomed at 67% at the end of November 2023 after having previously peaked at 81% in July 2023. The rebound in the odds of recession is nearing what might be described as a double top ....

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