QQQM - U.S. Recession/Recovery Watch

• At the end of 2019, before anyone outside Wuhan had heard of the new coronavirus, the leading indicators we track pointed to a 60% probability of the US economy entering recession during the first half of 2020 and an 80% probability of the US economy entering recession before the end of 2020.
• The only reason the probabilities weren't even higher was the possibility that the Fed's money pumping following its 2019 "pivot" would push the recession start into 2021. The lockdowns of March-2020 eliminated any possibility that the inevitable recession would be postponed.
• Over the next 1-2 quarters, it's a good bet that the monetary tsunami will continue, courtesy of both the Fed and the government.
• It's amazing what the government can do when it stops pretending to care about its own indebtedness and embraces the spirt of Modern Monetary Theory.

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