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In a recent research note, published about two months ago, I outlined why recession risk was low despite a decelerating economic environment.
I made this assessment based on my four-factor coincident index which was constructed based on the definition of a recession from the National Bureau of Economic Research "NBER."
For more on the construction of this index, and to understand the definition of recessions more clearly, you can click here for that past research note.
Over the past two months, there has been slight downward pressure to