IND - US Inflation Scenarios: War-Induced Oil-Price Shocks

2024-04-13 09:15:00 ET

Summary

• The article discusses various "oil-shock" scenarios and their potential impact on US core inflation.
• Global oil supplies are vulnerable to blockages of seaborn oil trade chokepoints and attacks on oil export infrastructure.  Major disruptions to global oil supplies can cause "oil price shocks".
• The article presents a detailed scenario analysis of various oil price shocks on core inflation.
• A war in the Middle East could have devastating impacts on US core inflation, the overall US economy and global financial assets.

In my most recent article , I outlined four scenarios for US inflation assuming that there is no war or other event that disrupts global oil supplies. In this article, I will outline various “oil-shock” scenarios and their expected impacts on US inflation....

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